Abstract
Molnupiravir is an antiviral medicine that induces lethal copying errors during SARS-CoV-2 RNA replication. Molnupiravir reduced hospitalization in one pivotal trial by 50% and had variable effects on reducing viral RNA levels in three separate trials. We used mathematical models to simulate these trials and closely recapitulated their virologic outcomes. Model simulations suggested lower antiviral potency against pre-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants than against Omicron. We estimated that in vitro assays underestimated in vivo potency by 6- to 7-fold against Omicron variants. Our model suggested that because polymerase chain reaction detects molnupiravir mutated variants, the true reduction in non-mutated viral RNA was underestimated by approximately 0.4 log10 in the two trials conducted while Omicron variants dominated. Viral area under the curve estimates differed significantly between non-mutated and mutated viral RNA. Our results reinforce past work suggesting that in vitro assays are unreliable for estimating in vivo antiviral drug potency and suggest that virologic endpoints for respiratory virus clinical trials should be catered to the drug mechanism of action.
Authors
Shadisadat Esmaeili, Katherine Owens, Ugo Avila-Ponce de Leon, Joseph F. Standing, David M. Lowe, Shengyuan Zhang, James A. Watson, William H.K. Schilling, Jessica Wagoner, Stephen J. Polyak, Joshua T. Schiffer
Figure 5
Model fit to virologic trial outcomes for PANORAMIC.
Copyright © 2025 American Society for Clinical Investigation
ISSN: 0021-9738 (print), 1558-8238 (online)