Submit a comment
Citation Information: J Clin Invest. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1172/JCI192052.
Abstract
Molnupiravir is an antiviral medicine that induces lethal copying errors during SARS-CoV-2 RNA replication. Molnupiravir reduced hospitalization in one pivotal trial by 50% and had variable effects on reducing viral RNA levels in three separate trials. We used mathematical models to simulate these trials and closely recapitulated their virologic outcomes. Model simulations suggest lower antiviral potency against pre-omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants than against omicron. We estimate that in vitro assays underestimate in vivo potency 6-7 fold against omicron variants. Our model suggests that because polymerase chain reaction detects molnupiravir mutated variants, the true reduction in non-mutated viral RNA is underestimated by ~0.4 log10 in the two trials conducted while omicron variants dominated. Viral area under the curve estimates differ significantly between non-mutated and mutated viral RNA. Our results reinforce past work suggesting that in vitro assays are unreliable for estimating in vivo antiviral drug potency and suggest that virologic endpoints for respiratory virus clinical trials should be catered to the drug mechanism of action.
Authors
Shadisadat Esmaeili, Katherine Owens, Ugo Avila-Ponce de Leon, Joseph F. Standing, David M. Lowe, Shengyuan Zhang, James A. Watson, William H.K. Schilling, Jessica Wagoner, Stephen J. Polyak, Joshua T. Schiffer
Guidelines
The Editorial Board will only consider comments that are deemed relevant and of interest to readers. The Journal will not post data that have not been subjected to peer review; or a comment that is essentially a reiteration of another comment.
- Comments appear on the Journal’s website and are linked from the original article’s web page.
- Authors are notified by email if their comments are posted.
- The Journal reserves the right to edit comments for length and clarity.
- No appeals will be considered.
- Comments are not indexed in PubMed.
Specific requirements
- Maximum length, 400 words
- Entered as plain text or HTML
- Author’s name and email address, to be posted with the comment
- Declaration of all potential conflicts of interest (even if these are not ultimately posted); see the Journal’s conflict-of-interest policy
- Comments may not include figures
Copyright © 2025 American Society for Clinical Investigation
ISSN: 0021-9738 (print), 1558-8238 (online)