To estimate the ultimate extent of myocardial damage during evolving myocardial infarction in conscious dogs and patients, we analyzed early serum creatine phosphokinase (CPK) changes with nonlinear curve-fitting techniques. In experiments with dogs, serial serum CPK changes were fit to a log-normal function by the least squares method; the extent of the completed infarct was calculated by analysis of observed serum CPK changes and verified by measurement of myocardial CPK depletion 24 h after coronary occlusion. Early prediction of myocardial damage was based on projected serum CPK values from best fit curves based on data obtained during the first 5 h after initial elevation of enzyme activity. The correlation between predicted and observed values was close (r > 0.96, n = 11). In 11 additional conscious animals subjected to coronary occlusion, isoproterenol was administered continuously as soon as damage had been estimated from projected serum CPK values. The extent of the completed infarct was assessed by analysis of all serial serum CPK values and verified by analysis of myocardial CPK depletion 24 h after coronary occlusion. In each experiment the calculated completed infarct size exceeded infarct size projected before administration of isoproterenol (average increase = 44±10 [SE]%). When similar calculations were applied in experiments with eight dogs treated with propranolol, myocardial salvage was detected in 50% of the animals.
William E. Shell, John F. Lavelle, James W. Covell, Burton E. Sobel