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Research Article Free access | 10.1172/JCI113523

Age and bone mass as predictors of fracture in a prospective study.

S L Hui, C W Slemenda, and C C Johnston Jr

Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis 46202.

Find articles by Hui, S. in: JCI | PubMed | Google Scholar

Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis 46202.

Find articles by Slemenda, C. in: JCI | PubMed | Google Scholar

Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis 46202.

Find articles by Johnston, C. in: JCI | PubMed | Google Scholar

First published June 1, 1988 - More info

Published in Volume 81, Issue 6 (June 1, 1988)
J Clin Invest. 1988;81(6):1804–1809. https://doi.org/10.1172/JCI113523.
Copyright © 1988, The American Society for Clinical Investigation.

Published June 1, 1988
Abstract

To study the effect of bone mass on the risk of fracture, we followed 521 Caucasian women over an average of 6.5 yr and took repeated bone mass measurements at the radius. We observed 138 nonspinal fractures in 3,388 person-yr. The person-years of follow-up and the incident fractures were cross-classified by age and bone mass. The incidence of fracture was then fitted to a log-linear model in age and bone mass. It was found that incidence of fracture increased with both increasing age and decreasing radius bone mass. When subsets of fractures were examined it was found that age was a stronger predictor of hip fractures, whereas midshaft radius bone mass was a stronger predictor of fractures at the distal forearm. We concluded that bone mass is a useful predictor of fractures but that other age-related factors associated with fractures need to be identified.

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