Alterations in the respiratory microbiome are common in chronic lung diseases, correlate with decreased lung function, and have been associated with disease progression. The clinical significance of changes in the respiratory microbiome after lung transplant, specifically those related to development of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD), are unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of lung microbiome characteristics in healthy lung transplant recipients on subsequent CLAD-free survival.

We prospectively studied a cohort of lung transplant recipients at the University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, MI, USA). We analysed characteristics of the respiratory microbiome in acellular bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) collected from asymptomatic patients during per-protocol surveillance bronchoscopy 1 year after lung transplantation. For our primary endpoint, we evaluated a composite of development of CLAD or death at 500 days after the 1-year surveillance bronchoscopy. Our primary microbiome predictor variables were bacterial DNA burden (total 16S rRNA gene copies per mL of BALF, quantified via droplet digital PCR) and bacterial community composition (determined by bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequencing). Patients' lung function was followed serially at least every 3 months by spirometry, and CLAD was diagnosed according to International Society of Heart and Lung Transplant 2019 guidelines.

We analysed BALF from 134 patients, collected during 1-year post-transplant surveillance bronchoscopy between Oct 21, 2005, and Aug 25, 2017. Within 500 days of follow-up from the time of BALF sampling, 24 (18%) patients developed CLAD, five (4%) died before confirmed development of CLAD, and 105 (78%) patients remained CLAD-free with complete follow-up. Lung bacterial burden was predictive of CLAD development or death within 500 days of the surveillance bronchoscopy, after controlling for demographic and clinical factors, including immunosuppression and bacterial culture results, in a multivariable survival model. This relationship was evident when burden was analysed as a continuous variable (per log₁₀ increase in burden, HR 2·49 [95% CI 1·38–4·48], p=0·0024) or by tertiles (middle vs lowest bacterial burden tertile, HR 4·94 [1·25–19·42], p=0·022; and highest vs lowest, HR 10·56 [2·53–44·08], p=0·0012). In patients who developed CLAD or died, composition of the lung bacterial community significantly differed to that in patients who survived and remained CLAD-free (on permutational multivariate analysis of variance, p=0·047 at the taxonomic level of family), although differences in community composition were associated with bacterial burden. No individual bacterial taxa were definitively associated with CLAD development or death.

Among asymptomatic lung transplant recipients at 1-year post-transplant, increased lung bacterial burden is predictive of chronic rejection and death. The lung microbiome represents an understudied and potentially modifiable risk factor for lung allograft dysfunction.

US National Institutes of Health, Cystic Fibrosis Foundation, Brian and Mary Campbell and Elizabeth Campbell Carr research gift fund.