Elevated blood pressure is the leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature death. The blood pressure waveform consists of discrete hemodynamic components, derived from measured central pressure and flow, which may contribute separately to risk for an adverse outcome. However, pressure-flow measures have not been studied in a large, community-based sample.

We used proportional hazards models to examine the association of incident CVD with forward pressure wave amplitude, mean arterial pressure, and global reflection coefficient derived from wave separation analysis and echocardiography in 2492 participants (mean age 66±9 years, 56% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. During follow-up (0.04–6.8 years), 149 participants (6%) had a CVD event. In multivariable models adjusting for age, sex, antihypertensive therapy, body mass index, heart rate, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, smoking, and the presence of diabetes mellitus, forward pressure wave amplitude (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.16–1.67; P=0.0003) was associated with incident CVD, whereas mean arterial pressure (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.94–1.29; P=0.25) and global wave reflection (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–1.12; P=0.58) were not. After adding systolic blood pressure and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity to the model, forward pressure wave amplitude persisted as a correlate of events (hazard ratio, 1.33; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–1.68; P=0.02).

Higher forward pressure wave amplitude (a measure of proximal aortic geometry and stiffness) was associated with increased risk for incident CVD, whereas mean arterial pressure and relative wave reflection (correlates of resistance vessel structure and function) were not associated with increased risk for incident CVD.