Why the US science and engineering workforce is aging rapidly

DM Blau, BA Weinberg - Proceedings of the National …, 2017 - National Acad Sciences
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2017National Acad Sciences
The science and engineering workforce has aged rapidly in recent years, both in absolute
terms and relative to the workforce as a whole. This is a potential concern if the large
number of older scientists crowds out younger scientists, making it difficult for them to
establish independent careers. In addition, scientists are believed to be most creative earlier
in their careers, so the aging of the workforce may slow the pace of scientific progress. We
develop and simulate a demographic model, which shows that a substantial majority of …
The science and engineering workforce has aged rapidly in recent years, both in absolute terms and relative to the workforce as a whole. This is a potential concern if the large number of older scientists crowds out younger scientists, making it difficult for them to establish independent careers. In addition, scientists are believed to be most creative earlier in their careers, so the aging of the workforce may slow the pace of scientific progress. We develop and simulate a demographic model, which shows that a substantial majority of recent aging is a result of the aging of the large baby boom cohort of scientists. However, changes in behavior have also played a significant role, in particular, a decline in the retirement rate of older scientists, induced in part by the elimination of mandatory retirement in universities in 1994. Furthermore, the age distribution of the scientific workforce is still adjusting. Current retirement rates and other determinants of employment in science imply a steady-state mean age 2.3 y higher than the 2008 level of 48.6.
National Acad Sciences