Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a devastating disease characterized by an unpredictable course. Prognostic markers and disease activity markers are needed. The purpose of this single-center retrospective study was to evaluate the prognostic value of lung fluorodeoxyglucose ([¹⁸F]-FDG) uptake assessed by standardized uptake value (SUV), metabolic lung volume (MLV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) in patients with IPF.

We included 27 IPF patients (IPF group) and 15 patients with a gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumor without thoracic involvement (control group). We quantified lung SUV mean and SUV max, MLV and TLG and assessed clinical data, high-resolution CT (HRCT) fibrosis and ground-glass score; lung function; gender, age, physiology (GAP) stage at inclusion and during follow-up; and survival.

Lung SUV mean and SUV max were higher in IPF patients than controls (p <0.00001). For patients with IPF, SUV mean, SUV max, MLV and TLG were correlated with severity of lung involvement as measured by a decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and increased GAP score. In a univariate and in a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model, risk of death was increased although not significantly with high SUV mean. On univariate analysis, risk of death was significantly associated with high TLG and MLV, which disappeared after adjustment functional variables or GAP index. Increased MLV and TLG were independent predictors of death or disease progression during the 12 months after PET scan completion (for every 100-point increase in TLG, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.11 (95% CI 1.06; 1.36), p = 0.003; for every 100-point increase in MLV, HR: 1.20 (1.04; 1.19), p = 0.002). On multivariable analysis including TLG or MLV with age, FVC, and DLCO or GAP index, TLG and MLV remained associated with progression-free survival (HR: 1.1 [1.03; 1.22], p = 0.01; and 1.13 [1.0; 1.2], p = 0.005).

FDG lung uptake may be a marker of IPF severity and predict progression-free survival for patients with IPF.