Mapping the antigenic and genetic evolution of influenza virus

DJ Smith, AS Lapedes, JC De Jong, TM Bestebroer… - science, 2004 - science.org
DJ Smith, AS Lapedes, JC De Jong, TM Bestebroer, GF Rimmelzwaan, ADME Osterhaus…
science, 2004science.org
The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its
introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence
between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic
evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had
a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic
differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of …
The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.
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