[HTML][HTML] Malaria attributable to the HIV-1 epidemic, sub-Saharan Africa

EL Korenromp, BG Williams, SJ De Vlas… - Emerging infectious …, 2005 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
EL Korenromp, BG Williams, SJ De Vlas, E Gouws, CF Gilks, PD Ghys, BL Nahlen
Emerging infectious diseases, 2005ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
We assessed the impact of HIV-1 on malaria in the sub-Saharan African population. Relative
risks for malaria in HIV-infected persons, derived from literature review, were applied to the
HIV-infected population in each country, by age group, stratum of CD4 cell count, and urban
versus rural residence. Distributions of CD4 counts among HIV-infected persons were
modeled assuming a linear decline in CD4 after seroconversion. Averaged across 41
countries, the impact of HIV-1 was limited (although quantitatively uncertain) because of the …
Abstract
We assessed the impact of HIV-1 on malaria in the sub-Saharan African population. Relative risks for malaria in HIV-infected persons, derived from literature review, were applied to the HIV-infected population in each country, by age group, stratum of CD4 cell count, and urban versus rural residence. Distributions of CD4 counts among HIV-infected persons were modeled assuming a linear decline in CD4 after seroconversion. Averaged across 41 countries, the impact of HIV-1 was limited (although quantitatively uncertain) because of the different geographic distributions and contrasting age patterns of the 2 diseases. However, in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, South Africa, and Namibia, the incidence of clinical malaria increased by< 28%(95% confidence interval [CI] 14%–47%) and death increased by< 114%(95% CI 37%–188%). These effects were due to high HIV-1 prevalence in rural areas and the locally unstable nature of malaria transmission that results in a high proportion of adult cases.
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